Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Ellsworth trails all GOP contenders for IN Senate

From Hot Air:
Democrats insist that they can run on ObamaCare in the midterms and not lose any ground in the House or Senate. The state of Indiana may have already provided evidence to the contrary. Rep. Brad Ellsworth will run in place of the retiring Democratic Senator Evan Bayh against a Republican yet to win the nomination. Rasmussen’s survey of likely Indiana voters shows that it doesn’t matter much which Republican gets the nomination, as Ellsworth loses handily to all three candidates:

Two of the three top Republican hopefuls for the U.S. Senate in Indiana continue to hold double-digit leads over Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth supported President Obama’s health care plan in a state where opposition to the legislation is higher than it is nationally.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds former Congressman John Hostettler with a 50% to 32% lead over Ellsworth, a current House member who voted with most other Democrats on Sunday to pass the health care plan. The survey was taken last Wednesday and Thursday nights. Fifteen percent (15%) remain undecided in that match-up.

Ex-Senator Dan Coats now posts a 49% to 34% lead over Ellsworth, with 12% undecided.

Ellsworth runs best against the third GOP contender, freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman. In that match-up, Stutzman leads by just seven points, 41% to 34%. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided.

The big surprise here is that Hostettler runs slightly better than Coats against Ellsworth. Coats has more name recognition, and Hostettler’s been out of Congress for a while. Hostettler is also arguably more conservative than Coats. If electability is the issue in the Republican primary, then Coats doesn’t have much of an argument — nor do Hostettler or Stutzman, for that matter. Heck, 14% of Democrats will vote for Hostettler or Coats over Ellsworth, hardly a vote of confidence.

Even more shocking, Ellsworth can’t get above 34% against any of them. Ellsworth is a sitting Representative, one who backed the health-care overhaul finally pushed by Barack Obama to a successful conclusion. Of course, Indiana voters have a 39% approval rating for Obama with 60% disapproval, and oppose ObamaCare by 35/63. Indiana voters also believe that the economy will get weaker rather than stronger over the next year (39%/33%, respectively), with another 18% saying it will be the same disappointing state as it is now.

Other states won’t have the kind of split on ObamaCare as seen in Indiana, but the bill was unpopular in most states where Democrats have to worry about elections. This shows that the backlash at the polls is coming, and coming strong.

I suspect that this had a lot to do with Evan Bayh giving $1 million to the Indiana Dems yesterday!  Probably more to come-Bayh had $12-16 in election funds banked.  Most striking to me is the 35/63 opposition to ObamaCare.  This is what all candidates need to hammer on in this state in order to be successful in November.  Given those kinds of numbers anyone who voted for ObamaCare, especially in a swing district like the 9th (Baron), is toast in November. - SP

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